4 мин.

ЮСО: Что думает Матт Кронин?

546

выложил прогноз Кронина

Кронин думает Вика играет на более высоким уровнем чем Мария и победит сегодня в 3 сетах.

Он прогнозирует два быстрых победных сетов для Серены против Эррани.

И конечно убежден что фаворит за титула это Серена.

Если не знали, он часто ошибается в прогнозах...

 

By Matt Cronin

Thursday, September 6, 2012

1-VICTORIA AZARENKA VS. 3-MARIA SHARAPOVA

This is the fourth clash of 2012 for two women who respect each other on court but are not great fans of each other on a personal basis. Even though they are only two-and-a-half years apart in age and speak Russian as their first language, they are of two different generations and are not that immediately trusting of women pursuing the same profession. They both wear Nike, they are both very loud grunters, and they both want the same thing: to be seen as the world’s best player with no peers.

Azarenka has given Sharapova trouble from the moment she came on tour, when she upset the now four-time Grand Slam champion at 2007 Moscow. While the 25-year-old Sharapova squeaked past her in two three-setters in 2009, after that, her only two wins over the Belarusian have come on clay courts, including in the Stuggart final on indoor clay in early April.

The 23-year-old Azarenka has won their last four matches on outdoor hard courts without dropping a set -- at 2010 Stanford, 2011 Miami and the 2012 Australian Open and Indian Wells finals. In those last two matches, Azarenka crushed the Russian.

That’s not because Azarenka is a better competitor than Sharapova is but because she has done a far better job of attacking her foe’s serves. While Azarenka does not have a great first serve herself, she usually serves at a high percentage and places it well, which doesn't allow Sharapova to launch bombs to the corners and get her nose in front of rallies. Sharapova also has served poorly against her foe, who owns one of the most vicious returns in the game. Azarenka more than stays with her from the backhand side and has a better backhand down the line. And while Sharapova's forehand is bigger and more consistent, she hasn't made good enough use of it against the woman who ties her ponytail tighter than she does.

Sharapova has been very stubborn with her game plan against Azarenka and is going to have to change things up like she did in Stuttgart, which means to mix speeds on occasion and try to hammer into Azarenka’s forehand, which has a tendency to break down under severe pressure. While I believe Sharapova will play Azarenka much closer than she did in the first quarter of the year, from what I’ve seen at this tournament and on hard courts all year long, No. 1 Azarenka is playing at a higher level. Vika will win in three very loud sets and enter her first US Open final.

4-SERENA WILLIAMS VS. 10-SARAH ERRANI

There really is no reason to go very deep into this match-up because, while Errani has had a standout summer, if Serena serves as well as she has all tournament long, she is going to win this in a romp. Williams is serving so well that it seems as if she never took her toes off Wimbledon grass. Consider this: In five matches, she has won 104 of 129 of her first-serve points (81 percent), banged 41 aces and won 60 percent of her second-serve points. Combined, that’s a little over 70 percent of service points won, which means she has been all but unbreakable.

Errani is an excellent return-of-server and has won 30 of the 47 (64 percent) break points that she earned. But she hasn't faced any player who serves anywhere close to as hard as Serena, let alone who returns as aggressively as Williams does. If the fast, creative and accurate Italian can get into a lot of long rallies with Serena, then she has a chance at an upset, but on a quick hard court, that seems almost impossible, as Serena will beat her to the punch time and time again. Unless Serena has a very down day, she will win this contest quickly in two sets and be favored to win her fourth US Open crown.

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