АО: Кто победит? - часть 2
Все хотят знать кто победит в Мельбурне. Я уже выставил мнение буков. Теперь начинаю выставлять мнения специалистов.
Мнение Ray Bowers очень интересно. И не потому что он увидел чемпионы АО, которых никто не ожидал, а потому что его мнение обосновано. Он использует специальные "индикаторы" чтобы оценит каждого игрока и потом используя эти оценки получает общий индекс по которому делает рейтинг игроков.
Выставляю оригинал только для женщин, хотя автор сделал тоже самое и для мужчин. Но на "Трибуне" есть блоггеры пишущие о мужчин, и я считаю что они лучше чем я смогут показать читателям работу автора.
Вот ссылка и если кто-то хочет пусть использует часть для мужчин:
http://www.tennisserver.com/lines/lines.html
Чемпион АО 2012 среди женщин будет:
Автор утверждает что полуфиналы будут:
Ли На - Азаренко
Серена - Квитова
Финал:
Азаренко - Квитова
Чемпионка:
Петра Квитова
Ray Bowers
WOMEN′S SINGLES
The women′s singles are intriguing as always. Four different women won the Slams of 2011, and a fifth female star captured the year′s #1 ranking. All four past Australian champions who remain active in the sport have been set back by injury problems of late. Meanwhile the strong array of young and rising stars seem ready for higher glory. Our indicators help in penetrating the disorder, and taken individually and in aggregate, they give unique perspectives.
Indicator 1. Weighed 13-month performance. Our heaviest-weighted event for predicting the women′s singles at Australian Open 2012 is U.S. Open 2011, followed in order by Wimbledon, Miami, and Canadian Open 2011.
1. Victoria Azarenka, score 15.2
2. Caroline Wozniacki, 13.3
3. Petra Kvitova, 12.3
The margins among the top three in this indicator are not large. Indeed the leader in our rank order changed just a day or two prior to the Melbourne draw owing to results at the Sydney tune-up.
The leader here, Belarus-born Victoria Azarenka, 24, shows a strong all-court game well suited to her athletic 6-0 and 145-pound physique. She scored well in several events highly-weighted here, winning Miami and reaching her only career Slam semi-final at Wimbledon, and she consistently scored well in earlier rounds of nearly all other important events. Victoria retired unusually often from tournaments for physical reasons, but she finished 2011 with a fine run at the Istanbul finale, where she lost to Petra Kvitova in a furious split-set championship match. She then started 2012 well, triumphing at Sydney by defeating Li Na in the final match on this very day.
As the top player in the official WTA rankings for both 2010 and 2011, Caroline Wozniacki, age 21 at height 5-10, is the #1 seed at Melbourne Park. As teenagers, she and Azarenka both moved upward rapidly in the rankings, but while Victoria acquired a reputation as a stormy competitor, Caroline developed a relentless consistency in avoiding error, a quality where she sometimes approached perfection as matches reached climax. Now, however, she often produces more-powerful and aggressive patterns of play, favored by her excellent size. Last year, she reached the final four at Australian and U.S. Opens and won the next-tier tournaments at Indian Wells and Dubai. As her comfort in attacking improves, so too should her results against the other superstars. Her break-through at a slam could come suddenly.
Also just 21 is rising superstar Petra Kvitova, at 6-0 and a trim 154 pounds. Having finished #34 in 2010 Petra rose to #2 one year later, having captured the 2011 crowns at Wimbledon, Paris Indoors, and Madrid clay. She was then dazzling in winning the finale in Istanbul, where she won all five of her matches behind a sliced, lefty serve that was devastating to the backhands of her right-handed opponents. Petra could be at the verge of dominating the sport.
Indicator 2. Aged results of last seven months.
1. Samantha Stosur, 14.1
2. Victoria Azarenka, 13.9
3. Agnieszka Radwanska, 13.9
Superstardom came late in Stosur′s career, years after early fame from superior doubles results. Five months ago at U.S. Open, Sam became the first Australian woman in 31 years to capture a Slam singles crown. That triumph (which is aged to just 3/7 value in our calculation here) along with her runner-up finish at Osaka and her final-four effort at Istanbul, makes her our leader in this indicator. Sam, however, began 2012 with first-round losses at Brisbane and Sydney.
Agnieszka Radwanska, third here at just age 22 and height 5-8, displays a nicely balanced game featuring good power. Her results were poor at U.S. Open and at Istanbul, but in the interval between those two events she captured the Premier Mandatory/Premier Five tournaments in Beijing and Tokyo. Success resumed in January in reaching the final four at Sydney, beating Wozniacki but then losing to Azarenka, in both cases in split sets. The prospects are assuredly upward for Agnieszka, both in Melbourne and in the months to follow.
Indicator 3. Elite wins vs. total losses
Serena Williams, 30, commands attention here, where quality rather than quantity of results is foremost. Serena played only briefly during 2011, recovering from nearly a year′s absence caused by injury and sickness. She lost only three matches during her late-spring and summer emergence, while in scoring 22 wins she defeated elites Wozniacki, Azarenka (twice), Sharapova, and Stosur. She made a powerful run to the final round at U.S. Open but was defeated in a stunning upset by Stosur.
1. Serena Williams, 23.9
2. Petra Kvitova, 20.0
3. Maria Sharapova, 9.2
Petra Kvitova joined Serena as the only players with more elite wins than total losses during the period. Five of Kvitova′s 15 elite wins came in the year-end event at Istanbul.
Still a powerful server and stroker is Russian-born Maria Sharapova, age 24 at height 6-2, Australian champion in 2008 but plagued for several years with major shoulder trouble, Maria in 2011 recovered some of her former eminence. She can be counted on to plaster every shot in high-risk attack. An ankle injury forced her withdrawal from the January tune-up at Brisbane.
Fourth place here belongs to Kim Clijsters, who won Australian Open 2011 but played only briefly thereafter, scoring four elite wins against eight total losses for the year. Kim returned at Brisbane in January 2012, reaching the semis with three victories, but she then retired against Hantuchova with muscle spasms in the hip area.
Indicator 4. Recent pattern of improvement
In a semi-final appearance at U.S. Open 2011, unseeded German player Angelica Kerber, 23, forced eventual champion Stosur to three sets. Angelica′s auspices continued to brighten thereafter, as she accumulated a 7-4 W-L record in the rest of 2011, where one of her losses was a split-setter to Radwanska. Continuing in 2012, she reached the semis against strong opponents in Auckland and again at Hobart.
Top-tenners Stosur and Radwanska claim the next two places here, consistent with their strong presence in our second indicator, which also depends partly on recent performance.
1. Angelica Kerber, 21.4
2. Samantha Stosur, 15.5
2. Agnieszka Radwanska, 15.5
Indicator 5. Past Australian Opens
Veteran former champions at Melboune Park scored well here. Serena has captured the crown five times, Clijsters and Sharapova each once.
1. Serena Williams, 21.0
2. Kim Clijsters, 12.5
3. Maria Sharapova, 11.1
Li Na in fourth place is the highest ranking player here not a past champion at Melbourne. Na′s relentless ground stroking lifted her to the final last year, and her win over Kvitova to reach the final in Sydney this month reveals her readiness to repeat her strong January play.
Composite of five indicators
1. Serena Williams, 55.0
2. Petra Kvitova, 49.0
3. Agnieszka Radwanska, 45.0
4. Samantha Stosur, 43.2
5. Victoria Azarenka, 39.5
Our composite ranking differs considerably from the official seedings. Our second-place performer, Kvitova, is also second in the seeded order, but otherwise none of our four favorites are among the official top four. It looks as if a deliciously scrambled official draw is promising many early-round treats.
THE PREDICTIONS
Top Quarter
Our indicators make Caroline Wozniacki and Li Na the front-ruinners in this quarter of the draw, with Kim Clijsters returning from inactivity to cloud matters. Caroline has the safer path in her half of the quarter, facing a likely fourth-round face-off with Jelena Jankovic or Lucie Safarova. Either is unlikely to derail the relentless determination of the Danish princess.
In the lower half, Clijsters must face Daniela Hantuchova, whom she defeated nine straight times prior to the retirement in Brisbane. Kim will then meet Li Na, supernova of Australia 2011, whose firm ground game is likely to prevail against a Clijsters at less than her best. The two met in the final rounds last year at both Sydney and Melbourne. Li won in straight sets in the first case, Clijsters won at Melbourne Park in a three-set classic. It is hard to believe that Kim can find her superb form of one year ago, so the choice here Is Li.
The Li-Wozniacki quarter-final is intriguing. Na defeated Caroline at Australian Open in both 2010 and 2011, last year in a close three-setter. She also won when they met in Sydney 2010. Our other indicators point to Caroline, though not overwhelmingly. Caroline is the younger and larger player, but the evidence from the last two Januarys makes Na the choice here. Thus Li Na will again topple the tournament′s top seed.
Second Quarter
Our indicators show that Azarenka and Radwanska are well ahead of the many fine, rising players in this quarter. Azarenka has a firm advantage over the Polish star in the first indicator, weighted results of the last year, but Agnieszka is close in all other indicators and has the definite edge in the fourth, pattern of improvement. Azarenka is well ahead in their head-to-head count, but Radwanska won their last meeting, last fall in Tokyo. I like Radwanska′s calm on-court temperament, but Victoria′s recent win over Li, who had just beaten Kvitova, turns the verdict here to Azarenka.
Third Quarter
Two risers require attention in this quarter -- Kaia Kanepi, 26, who won at Brisbane this month, and Angelique Kerber, 23, who leads in our fourth indicator. Probably neither will reach the final match of the quarter, however, even though their higher-ranked likely opponents all seem on downhill paths. Kerber must make her way against Sharapova with either Kuznetsova or rising Lisicki ahead. Sharapova is the choice in this mix. Meanwhile Kanepi seems about even with Zvonareva but the winner of these two must face Serena Williams.
A fully healthy Serena with a moderate record of recent activity would be the heavy favorite to sweep the quarter. Her withdrawal after two wins in Brisbane leaves unclear her readiness, not so much because of the ankle injury itself but rather because of her long absence previously. In similar circumstances in the past, Serena, now 30, has been able to find her top game. Guessing, that will happen once again, and the winner of the quarter will be Serena.
Bottom Quarter
There is a potential tennis giant, capable of reaching Serena′s heights, in this quarter, whose rise in 2011 in my opinion was only prelude to higher glory just ahead. She is only 21 at height 6-0, seemingly at full physical health. Petra Kvitova is the player to beat in this tournament. Her only weakness, it has seemed to me, is a tendency to relax her strong game when she feels overly comfortable.
Improving Pavlyuchenkova could give Kvitova trouble in their half of the quarter. The same must be said of Stosur, or alternatively Bartoli, in the other half. But if Kvitova maintains the concentration needed to produce her superior forcefulness and precision, none of these players can stop her. Once ahead on the scoreboard, that wonderful left-handed sliced serve will close out matters. Kvitova to the final four.
FINAL FOUR
Petra Kvitova′s best game equals or perhaps even surpasses Serena′s.
That assertion has yet to be proven by the young Czech star, but her chance should come in the semis at Melbourne Park. Petra must bear down relentlessly and avoid those spells of lesser play that sometimes unexpectedly appear. But she is far more likely than Serena to be in top form. Nine years younger, three inches taller, and toughened by regular challenges throughout 2011, Kvitova should claim the victory.
As to the two players in the other semi, Azarenka, 22, is considerably younger and taller than Li Na, she won their last meeting comfortably (at Istanbul last fall), and she probably has the easier road to the semis. Our indicators, especially the first, point strongly to Victoria. There are marked differences in their temperaments, Na calm and less demonstrative on the court, Victoria sometimes showing irritation, risking loss of concentration. Having improved in this area with maturity, Azarenka should here reach her first slam final.
It should be a fascinating affair between two young power hitters. Kvitova and Azarenka met in the final match at the finale in Istanbul last fall. Kvitova won, but the verdict was not clear-cut until well into the third set, when Petra turned on the full heat. For me it would be a surprise if matters are equally close this time. Fortified by the realization that Petra has won their last four meetings, and that our composite indicator tally strongly favors her, I believe that the new champion at Melbourne Park will be Kvitova.
Best wishes to fellow watchers worldwide for yet another magical and magnificent Slam.
--Ray Bowers
Arlington, Virginia, U.S.A
