26 декабря 2015, 10:43 6 мин.

Sharapova can end Serena's reign

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By: Andy Schooler (Twitter: @NetTalkTennis)Last Updated: December 23 2015, 15:10 GMTOur tennis tipster Andy Schooler picks out the best bets for the 2016 WTA season - and he's taking on Serena Williams.

Recommended bets:

1pt Maria Sharapova to finish as year-end world number one

2pts Karolina Pliskova to finish in the top eight

4pts Johanna Konta to finish lower than 32.5 in ranking list

Year-end world number one

If you can judge when Serena Williams' level will finally dip then you've every chance of making a tidy profit.

The year-end world number one for the last three years, Williams is odds-on to repeat the trick in 2016.

However, you have to wonder how long she can continue to defy age - she'll turn 35 during the new season.

While people would have sat in this position in previous years and said the same thing, there are additional concerns for me this time around.

Williams was clearly seriously driven by a desire to win the Grand Slam last season but fell agonisingly short, losing match 27 of 28 and thus failing to equal the achievement of Steffi Graf.

While the American remains the best player on the planet, simply dusting herself down and 'going again' at the same goal will be much easier said than done.

I feel there could easily be a mental hangover from her shock US Open loss to Roberta Vinci, one which remains her last competitive match.

It is also fair to say that while that loss was one of just three defeats in 2015, Williams struggled more last season than she had done in the previous two.

That may seem a funny thing to say but it was not demolition after demolition as we've often seen from Serena. Instead three-set battles were regular occurrences - no fewer than 11 of her 27 Grand Slam wins came in three sets, including five out of seven at Roland Garros alone.

Essentially, small signs of a slip are there if you look closely enough and so I'm instead going to take a punt and oppose her with Maria Sharapova.

The Russian's 2015 was an injury-hit one and she basically missed three and a half months after Wimbledon, only returning towards the end of the campaign.

That return was a good one though and she looked much sharper than expected as she made the semis of the WTA Finals in Singapore and then did all she could - winning her two matches - in the Fed Cup final, only to finish on the losing side.

Despite her lengthy injury absence, Sharapova still finished the year fourth in the WTA ranking list having won two titles, reached the Australian Open final and made four other semi-finals, including one at Wimbledon.

The year before, when fully fit, it should be remembered she went into the WTA Finals with a chance of overhauling Williams as world number one.

In short, she's a pretty consistent performer (teak-tough mentally too) and if she stays fit and Williams does dip - the latter will have to happen for anyone to stand a chance in the market - then Sharapova should be in a good position to take advantage.

Others with an eye on doing just that include Simona Halep and Garbine Muguruza.

However, Halep has produced some miserable big-match performances at times (the US Open semi-final being a prime example), suggesting a mental frailty which is a worry for potential backers.

Muguruza is clearly a player on the rise and her displays on the big stage at Wimbledon and the WTA Finals showed she's certainly a contender to be world number one at some stage. However, converting that potential is something she's still to truly confirm and I prefer to back to the proven Sharapova at almost twice the price.

To finish in the top eight

Karolina Pliskova went into the final week of the 2015 season still in with a chance of making the top eight. She ultimately failed to do so but I don't think she should be up at 5/1 to go that little step further in the coming campaign.

The Czech has a fearsome serve - she served more aces than anyone on the WTA circuit last term - and the rest of her game is far from shabby. It can't be if you are finishing 11th in the end-of-season rankings.

That was achieved without Pliskova going beyond the third round at any of the four Grand Slams, something I find hard to imagine will happen again in 2016.

Essentially there's still plenty of room for improvement for the 23-year-old.

Flavia Pennetta, still considered the world number eight, is one of those who finished above Pliskova in 2015 and she's now retired, while Venus Williams will surely do well to finish in the top eight again given she'll be 36 in June.

The conclusion is 5/1 is simply too big and providing Pliskova does not suffer a big slump then it's hard to see her not being at least in strong contention to land this bet.

Over/under ranking

Fair play to Johanna Konta.

Ranked at 147 heading into the grasscourt season, the Briton ended 2015 as the world's 48th best player.

Few saw her impressive run in the second half of the season coming and wins over Simona Halep, Garbine Muguruza (twice), Ekaterina Makarova and Andrea Petkovic (twice) proved she can live with those even further up the list.

That's prompted Sky Bet to set her over/under ranking mark for the end of 2016 at 32.5 but that might be a tad ambitious.

Konta's game was little known on the main tour in 2015. It won't be now after her head-turning success of the past six months.

The 24-year-old's ranking breakdown is also worth considering. She picked up a significant number of points on the 'second division' ITF Pro Circuit but this year looks likely to be played entirely on the main tour. Of course, more points are up for grabs there but wins are also harder to come by and it would be no great surprise for Konta to get stuck in something of a rut at some point during the season.

The new season gets under way on January 3.

Posted at 1130 GMT on 23/12/15.