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ЮСО: Кто победит? - часть 1

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Выставил прогноз Hannah Wilks.

Breaking down the US Open women’s draw as five-time champion Serena Williams leads the field, with the rest of the WTA Tour’s best coming right behind her. The tournament begins on Monday 25 August, but who will be holding the trophy when it ends?

Top quarter

Projected quarterfinal: Serena Williams (1) vs Ana Ivanovic (8) (7-1)

Projected round of 16: Williams vs Carla Suarez Navarro (15), Flavia Pennetta (11) vs Ivanovic

Every Grand Slam in 2014 Serena Williams has been predicted to win, and every time she’s fallen before the quarterfinals. But looking at the US Open draw, it’s genuinely hard to see who’s going to beat the US Open champion early.

Opening against the future star Taylor Townsend, Williams could meet fading force Francesca Schiavone in the second round while her projected third-round opponent, Zhang Shuai, is 0-11 in Grand Slam matches so look for perhaps Varvara Lepchenko to come through instead. Sam Stosur, who was just beaten in straight sets by Williams twice in two weeks, is a slim chance to come through to the fourth round – as is the in-form Coco Vandeweghe – but Carla Suarez Navarro has been consistent in 2014. The diminutive Spanish player shouldn’t pose too much of a challenge to Williams, however.

Ana Ivanovic leads the WTA Tour in matches won, but hasn’t penetrated deep in a Grand Slam, with her best run coming at the Australian Open, where she beat Williams to reach the quarterfinals. The last eight in New York could well see a re-match if Ivanovic doesn’t blink. The Serbian player opens against Alison Riske and could meet the big-serving Karolina Pliskova in the second round and the tenacious Casey Dellacqua in the third, but the biggest threat would seem to be projected fourth-round opponent Flavia Pennetta, who hasn’t won a lot recently but plays beautifully at the US Open.

Semifinalist: Williams

Early exit: Suarez Navarro

Second quarter

Projected quarterfinal: Petra Kvitova (3) vs Eugenie Bouchard (7) (2-0)

Projected round of 16 matches: Kvitova vs Victoria Azarenka (16), Dominika Cibulkova (2) vs Bouchard

This quarter has a strong claim to be the most packed and unpredictable in the draw. Wimbledon champion Petra Kvitova has the game to beat just about anybody , as we know, but she doesn’t play well at the US Open where she has never been beyond the round of 16. Victoria Azarenka is struggling for form after a lengthy injury absence and carrying a new injury to her knee, while Dominika Cibulkova simply hasn’t been the same player who recorded a stunning first quarter of the season and Eugenie Bouchard has had a poor US hard court season and has knee and thigh injuries of her own.

So who’s going to come through? If Bouchard can find some form, her draw isn’t at all bad. The only women to make the semifinals or better at all three Grand Slams in 2014 opens against Olga Govortsova with the inconsistent Sorana Cirstea or tenacious but underpowered Heather Watson in the second round and Wimbledon quarterfinalist Barbora Zahlavova Strycova or perhaps the dangerous Yaroslava Shvedova in the third. The biggest threat to Bouchard reaching the quarterfinals, with Cibulkova not in form, could be another Wimbledon quarterfinalist, the very talented Ekaterina Makarova.

It’s another nightmare draw for Azarenka, who could have to face former US Open champion Svetlana Kuznetsova in the third round, while the eye is immediately drawn to a possible big-hitting third-round clash between Kvitova and Eastbourne champion Madison Keys in the third – if Kvitova can get past Kristina Mladenovic, who beat Li Na at the French Open, and either Klara Koukalova or the always dangerous Petra Cetkovska in the second. As they all battle each other to a standstill, Bouchard could be the beneficiary.

Semifinalist: Bouchard

Early exit: Kvitova

Third quarter

Projected quarterfinal: Angelique Kerber (6) vs Agnieszka Radwanska (4) (4-5)

Projected round of 16 matches: Kerber vs Jelena Jankovic (9), Lucie Safarova (14) vs Radwanska

This quarter of the draw – with all due respect – feels like the ‘emptiest’ when it comes to serious contenders for the title. The only quarter without at least one former US Open champion in it, the closest is Jelena Jankovic, who made the US Open final in 2008, and former semifinalists Angelique Kerber and Yanina Wickmayer.

The highest seed in the quarter, Agnieszka Radwanska, has never been beyond the round of 16 at the US Open but she’s coming off an excellent US Open Series, beating Venus Williams to win the Rogers Cup. Radwanska is also looking to bounce back from disappointing French Open and Wimbledon campaigns and she has the draw to do it, although a second-round meeting with either Peng Shuai or Zheng Jie could be tricky; projected third-round opponent Roberta Vinci is slumping and there’s no-one obvious to take advantage. In terms of potential fourth-round opponents, Wimbledon semifinalist Lucie Safarova is playing good tennis but she’s still inconsistent and Alize Cornet is 1-3 against Radwanska, although she did win their last meeting in Katowice.

So Radwanska looks set to make the quarterfinals, but who will meet her there? Jelena Jankovic and Sloane Stephens are outside possibilities, but it does look like being Kerber, who reached the Stanford final and played better tennis in Montreal and Cincinnati than her early exits would suggest. Watch out, however, for the winner of a first-round clash between talented teenager Belinda Bencic and former US Open semifinalist Yanina Wickmayer, who can still pull off a big win on occasion; and Washington D.C. finalist Kurumi Nara as well, who seems to be growing into an increasingly dangerous player. If one of those players takes Kerber out, look for Jankovic to be the beneficiary.

Semifinalist: Kerber

Early exit: Stephens

Fourth quarter

Projected quarterfinal: Maria Sharapova (5) vs Simona Halep (2) (5-0)

Projected round of 16 matches: Sharapova vs Caroline Wozniacki (10), Sara Errani (13) vs Halep

It’s the French Open final re-match Simona Halep didn’t want as she looks to go beyond the round of 16 for the first time in New York: Facing Maria Sharapova in the quarterfinals, who is now 5-0 against her, including a victory in Cincinnati two weeks ago.

But both players have to get there first and Sharapova doesn’t look in stunning form since winning the French Open. The Russian, who won the US Open in 2006 but has only been as far as the semifinals once since (in 2012), opens against compatriot Maria Kirilenko in what is actually a less tough draw than it seems – Kirilenko is a former top-ten player who once beat Sharapova at a Slam, yes, but she’s also currently ranked 113 as she struggles to come back from injury. More intriguing and potentially problematic for Sharapova are projected third-round opponent Sabine Lisicki, who has beaten her in the past and could again if she brought some of that Wimbledon magic to New York, and two potential fourth-round opponents, Roland Garros semifinalist Andrea Petkovic and Caroline Wozniacki, a former US Open finalist who looks on great form and hungry for wins at the moment. Wozniacki could have a tough first-round opponent in Magdalena Rybarikova, a semifinalist in New Haven this week, but other than that both have good draws to a third-round clash.

In the bottom half of this section, there’s a handful of dangerous players queuing up to cause upsets; Simona Halep is likely to meet Maria-Teresa Torro-Flor, a Spanish player with a forehand to respect, in the second round and Garbine Muguruza, who’s almost as dangerous on hard courts as she is on clay, in the third round. Venus Williams opens against veteran Kimiko Date-Krumm, who pushed her to the wire at Wimbledon a few years ago, but could be set for a good run after that, with Sara Errani – not on great form – the seed in her quarter. Errani opens against Kirsten Flipkens and could face the perpetually dangerous Camila Giorgi in the second round. A Venus Williams-Camila Giorgi third round, with the winner moving on to face Muguruza or Halep? It’s a mouthwatering prospect and this is a section where it’s less important to predict the winner than enjoy the ride.

Semifinalist: Wozniacki

Early exit: Errani

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